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not sure what counterfactual you want to run. the obvious thing to have done would have been to shut down global travel in jan feb 2020 to ramp up contact tracing. could have saved north of 4 million people and months or years of lockdown. given that didn't happen...
...basically what the goal is is to hold off exponential spread of hte virus till the vaccines can be globally deployed. lockdowns are a more costly way to do this than masks, vaccines, or ventilation, so people usually hold off until it's already really bad. more stable from 0
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