You would think that, certainly. But real-world data shows lockdowns don't correlate to lower per capita covid death rates. Look at the Google mobility data.
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Replying to @georgi_boorman @DraganOrlich
is this the study you’re suggesting? https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352827321000744 …pic.twitter.com/uWhRG6icwB
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i also found this study in scientific reports out of brazil which seemingly contradicts the above (later) study but it’s methods are pretty weird and biased to brazil which has data problems. i don’t like how they are looking at n^2 comparisons & lumping
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84092-1?s=04&fbclid=IwAR1JeY3gHyOSsamPKzD8GHf71twcdBPkqBYx-EUoTOpgbx5l1EAKZVpG5HU …2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
this study has a lot of methodological problems, but the main one is that it doesn't account for the lag in the effectiveness of npis to the death rate. it takes time for lockdowns to affect death since the disease takes time to kill. if you incl lags you get 70% sig. relationspic.twitter.com/O48LYGimd3
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Replying to @DanielleFong @DraganOrlich
Is 14 months not enough time? For every example where NPIs are followed by a curve flattening/decline, I can show you several more where that didn't happen. I'm sorry, it sucks that we destroyed the economy and people's livelihoods and long term health for nothing, but we did
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Replying to @DraganOrlich @DanielleFong
Are India and Brazil suddenly the only countries in the world? I hadn't noticed!
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Replying to @DraganOrlich @DanielleFong
New York had one of the harshest lockdowns last spring. They also had one of the steepest COVID curves and highest deaths per capita. The top 3 states in per capita COVID deaths have been lockdown states. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/ …pic.twitter.com/tVfTESDa74
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but... this is consistent with lockdowns having their maximum effect on the death signal like 5 weeks later. restaurants and schools closed march 16th, deaths peaked april 12th, about 3-4 weeks later. NYC otherwise had high pop density & many travelerspic.twitter.com/5eQjOtC89F
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