you are welcome
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btw note that the frequency of contact is a very powerful variable. presymptomatic attack rates for people you just work with: 0 attack rates for people you live with / frequent contact, 16.4%! behaviour probably has a huge effect https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1142-t1 …pic.twitter.com/O1BU1uUNLk
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Replying to @DanielleFong @DraganOrlich
I covered this in a Substack post along with several other studies on presymptomatic & asymptomatic spread. You're missing the point: lockdowns keep you in the home with other household members, and mask mandates don't cover home life, anyway.
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Replying to @georgi_boorman @DraganOrlich
you’re right, i did miss that point — but even if in the close contact of lockdown the attack rates go up because of frequency of contact, the outbreak stops within the bubble, which is an effective control, right?
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Replying to @DanielleFong @DraganOrlich
You would think that, certainly. But real-world data shows lockdowns don't correlate to lower per capita covid death rates. Look at the Google mobility data.
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Replying to @georgi_boorman @DraganOrlich
is this the study you’re suggesting? https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352827321000744 …pic.twitter.com/uWhRG6icwB
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i also found this study in scientific reports out of brazil which seemingly contradicts the above (later) study but it’s methods are pretty weird and biased to brazil which has data problems. i don’t like how they are looking at n^2 comparisons & lumping
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84092-1?s=04&fbclid=IwAR1JeY3gHyOSsamPKzD8GHf71twcdBPkqBYx-EUoTOpgbx5l1EAKZVpG5HU …2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
this study has a lot of methodological problems, but the main one is that it doesn't account for the lag in the effectiveness of npis to the death rate. it takes time for lockdowns to affect death since the disease takes time to kill. if you incl lags you get 70% sig. relationspic.twitter.com/O48LYGimd3
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Replying to @DanielleFong @DraganOrlich
Is 14 months not enough time? For every example where NPIs are followed by a curve flattening/decline, I can show you several more where that didn't happen. I'm sorry, it sucks that we destroyed the economy and people's livelihoods and long term health for nothing, but we did
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please do show those
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