the more complex the mathematics, the easier it is to hide mistakes
yeah, the authors in that Brazilian study even mention this and then surprisingly don't take it into account properly (??) given that lockdowns usually proceed when things are getting pretty dire it's obvious that would be a confounding variable and you need to lag the data...pic.twitter.com/1UOqfNSgO2
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why do through the trouble of doing all this analysis while forgetting to lag the data properly? idk
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idk, here is my smooth-brain analysis