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DanielleFong's profile
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@DanielleFong

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@DanielleFong

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Empire of the Future
Joined February 2008

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    1.  🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 4 Feb 2021
      Replying to @DanielleFong @DraganOrlich @georgi_boorman

      this might be because of isolation, mask wearing, lifestyle habits, or very very aggressive contact tracing done early in Taiwan, so, a larger denominator. Also with rates so low in Taiwan less likely to catch Covid off of a traced chain. either way, it's the same number for pre

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    2.  🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 4 Feb 2021
      Replying to @DanielleFong @DraganOrlich @georgi_boorman

      overall it looks like she's propagated an error made in the meta-analysis, the studies that section cites all give higher values for presymptomatic or asymptomatic attack rates, or have the same attack rates as the symptomatic cases, as in the Taiwan study.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    3. This Tweet is unavailable.
    4.  🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 4 Feb 2021
      Replying to @DraganOrlich @georgi_boorman

      you are welcome

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5.  🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 4 Feb 2021
      Replying to @DanielleFong @DraganOrlich @georgi_boorman

      btw note that the frequency of contact is a very powerful variable. presymptomatic attack rates for people you just work with: 0 attack rates for people you live with / frequent contact, 16.4%! behaviour probably has a huge effect https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1142-t1 …pic.twitter.com/O1BU1uUNLk

      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
    6. Georgi Boorman‏ @georgi_boorman 15 May 2021
      Replying to @DanielleFong @DraganOrlich

      I covered this in a Substack post along with several other studies on presymptomatic & asymptomatic spread. You're missing the point: lockdowns keep you in the home with other household members, and mask mandates don't cover home life, anyway.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7.  🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 15 May 2021
      Replying to @georgi_boorman @DraganOrlich

      you’re right, i did miss that point — but even if in the close contact of lockdown the attack rates go up because of frequency of contact, the outbreak stops within the bubble, which is an effective control, right?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Georgi Boorman‏ @georgi_boorman 15 May 2021
      Replying to @DanielleFong @DraganOrlich

      You would think that, certainly. But real-world data shows lockdowns don't correlate to lower per capita covid death rates. Look at the Google mobility data.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9.  🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 15 May 2021
      Replying to @georgi_boorman @DraganOrlich

      is this the study you’re suggesting? https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352827321000744 …pic.twitter.com/uWhRG6icwB

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    10.  🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 15 May 2021
      Replying to @DanielleFong @georgi_boorman @DraganOrlich

      i also found this study in scientific reports out of brazil which seemingly contradicts the above (later) study but it’s methods are pretty weird and biased to brazil which has data problems. i don’t like how they are looking at n^2 comparisons & lumping🤷🏻‍♀️https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84092-1?s=04&fbclid=IwAR1JeY3gHyOSsamPKzD8GHf71twcdBPkqBYx-EUoTOpgbx5l1EAKZVpG5HU …

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
       🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 15 May 2021
      Replying to @DanielleFong @georgi_boorman @DraganOrlich

      this study has a lot of methodological problems, but the main one is that it doesn't account for the lag in the effectiveness of npis to the death rate. it takes time for lockdowns to affect death since the disease takes time to kill. if you incl lags you get 70% sig. relationspic.twitter.com/O48LYGimd3

      4:00 PM - 15 May 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Georgi Boorman‏ @georgi_boorman 17 May 2021
          Replying to @DanielleFong @DraganOrlich

          Is 14 months not enough time? For every example where NPIs are followed by a curve flattening/decline, I can show you several more where that didn't happen. I'm sorry, it sucks that we destroyed the economy and people's livelihoods and long term health for nothing, but we did

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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