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DanielleFong's profile
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@DanielleFong

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Empire of the Future
Joined February 2008

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    1. Georgi Boorman‏ @georgi_boorman 1 Feb 2021

      My Substack post about asymptomatic/presymptomatic COVID transmission is up now. About that Asymptomatic Spread...https://georgiboorman.substack.com/p/about-that-asymptomatic-spread?r=2k1wi&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter …

      5 replies 12 retweets 28 likes
    2. This Tweet is unavailable.
    3.  🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 4 Feb 2021
      Replying to @DraganOrlich @georgi_boorman

      I went through every single reference about the presymptomatic attack rates in the meta analysis she cites, and it's weird. The attack rates are way higher than the meta analysis cites (0.7%) e.g. here it's 4.4% asymp, 6.1% pre... https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/11/20-2263_article …pic.twitter.com/fB36uKpe9f

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
    4.  🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 4 Feb 2021
      Replying to @DanielleFong @DraganOrlich @georgi_boorman

      it seems that the meta analysis citing 0.7% as the attack rate for presymptomatics is a sloppy error, a copy and past form the Taiwan study, as it is the same number and the lowest among the studies. The same study has the same attack rate for symptomatic contacts, 0.7%, not 19%!

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    5.  🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 4 Feb 2021
      Replying to @DanielleFong @DraganOrlich @georgi_boorman

      this might be because of isolation, mask wearing, lifestyle habits, or very very aggressive contact tracing done early in Taiwan, so, a larger denominator. Also with rates so low in Taiwan less likely to catch Covid off of a traced chain. either way, it's the same number for pre

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6.  🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 4 Feb 2021
      Replying to @DanielleFong @DraganOrlich @georgi_boorman

      overall it looks like she's propagated an error made in the meta-analysis, the studies that section cites all give higher values for presymptomatic or asymptomatic attack rates, or have the same attack rates as the symptomatic cases, as in the Taiwan study.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    7. Georgi Boorman‏ @georgi_boorman 15 May 2021
      Replying to @DanielleFong @DraganOrlich

      That meta-analysis has been available since August and was officially released as peer-reviewed in December. Keep in mind 0.7 is just in the middle of the confidence interval, and each study isn't weighed the same. If you think they're in error go write to the authors.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
       🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 15 May 2021
      Replying to @georgi_boorman @DraganOrlich

      alright, i did this. i don’t see how the 0.7% comes out by anything other than a math error or transcription error. if you weight the studies by n you get 4.6%, and if you weight it by study (why do this) it’s still 2.4%. to get 0.7% you must overweight the low n studiespic.twitter.com/yGWDuRdnEU

      12:16 PM - 15 May 2021
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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