My Substack post about asymptomatic/presymptomatic COVID transmission is up now. About that Asymptomatic Spread...https://georgiboorman.substack.com/p/about-that-asymptomatic-spread?r=2k1wi&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter …
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Replying to @DraganOrlich @georgi_boorman
I went through every single reference about the presymptomatic attack rates in the meta analysis she cites, and it's weird. The attack rates are way higher than the meta analysis cites (0.7%) e.g. here it's 4.4% asymp, 6.1% pre... https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/11/20-2263_article …pic.twitter.com/fB36uKpe9f
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it seems that the meta analysis citing 0.7% as the attack rate for presymptomatics is a sloppy error, a copy and past form the Taiwan study, as it is the same number and the lowest among the studies. The same study has the same attack rate for symptomatic contacts, 0.7%, not 19%!
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this might be because of isolation, mask wearing, lifestyle habits, or very very aggressive contact tracing done early in Taiwan, so, a larger denominator. Also with rates so low in Taiwan less likely to catch Covid off of a traced chain. either way, it's the same number for pre
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overall it looks like she's propagated an error made in the meta-analysis, the studies that section cites all give higher values for presymptomatic or asymptomatic attack rates, or have the same attack rates as the symptomatic cases, as in the Taiwan study.
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Replying to @DanielleFong @DraganOrlich
That meta-analysis has been available since August and was officially released as peer-reviewed in December. Keep in mind 0.7 is just in the middle of the confidence interval, and each study isn't weighed the same. If you think they're in error go write to the authors.
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thanks for the response, i guess i’ll send them this review tweet for comment
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