it turns out that recovery from most infections including the rona is about equivalent to vaccination so who cares, really get immunity one way or the other, take your pick
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Replying to @brazen_cabeza
vaccination knocks an order of magnitude and change off any negative consequences of this particular pathogen, including risk of transmission R0 is high but not that high this should be quite adequate
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Replying to @djinnius @brazen_cabeza
asymptomatic transmission even pre-vaxx appears to have been a phantom so I'm pretty optimistic all around
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Replying to @djinnius @brazen_cabeza
i looked into research that state this and it’s pretty mistaken / unconvincing, i found a straight up transcription error in a metaanalysis that got replicated in the discourse
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Replying to @DanielleFong @brazen_cabeza
interesting, are we distinguishing between presymptomatic and asymptomatic here? because shedding during the unusually long latency period is def. understood to be a problem which wouldn't apply to the vaccinated unless they do get sick (always some)
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Replying to @djinnius @brazen_cabeza
🤷🏻♀️ Retweeted 🤷🏻♀️
here’s the threadhttps://twitter.com/DanielleFong/status/1357470834277908483 …
🤷🏻♀️ added,
🤷🏻♀️ @DanielleFongReplying to @DraganOrlich @georgi_boormanI went through every single reference about the presymptomatic attack rates in the meta analysis she cites, and it's weird. The attack rates are way higher than the meta analysis cites (0.7%) e.g. here it's 4.4% asymp, 6.1% pre... https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/11/20-2263_article … pic.twitter.com/fB36uKpe9f1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @DanielleFong @brazen_cabeza
that's... not as bad as I imagined in some totally made-up world where ~60-70% gets the vaxx and exposed-but-vaccinated people transmit at the asymptomatic rate, the R0 is low enough for extinction
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yeah the only monkey wrench in these works is that the attack rate of p1 and b.617 is like 3x higher
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Replying to @DanielleFong @brazen_cabeza
simulators gotta keep the plot exciting in the final arc
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