How do you think India got in this mess? Opened too early, no masks even outdoors, variants that are killing kidshttps://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/04/22/989768074/how-india-went-from-a-ray-of-hope-to-a-world-record-for-most-covid-cases-in-a-da …
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Replying to @padme911 @DrEricDing
ok, but, the situation is quantitatively different in many ways. vaccine penetration, large maskless superspreader events at high density, a really bad variant, and an unprepared health system. the situation could well become bad from here but not as bad as india w/o changes
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Replying to @DanielleFong @DrEricDing
Biden told everyone vaccinated can take off the mask and smile to the world..... Um that means things are open again... Concerts, sports.. Unmasked super spreader events..
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Replying to @padme911 @DrEricDing
the whole validity of this concern is whether or not the # of people not vaxxed and lying about it is enough to make the infection go critical in whatever local population. on the other hand if you do get vaxxed and then don’t have to mask it is an enticement for the hesitant
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it could easily go the other way. how many people are going to lie about this. 20%? not enough to spread critically according to my napkin math, presumably not according to the cdc’s evaluation either
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Replying to @DanielleFong @DrEricDing
Except your numbers are crap. Where I live only 40.8% are fully vaccinated.... Not even close to herd immunity and highest in my areapic.twitter.com/MQ14WiLQ4y
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Replying to @padme911 @DrEricDing
of the remaining 60% with no dose (and some background level of exposure) how many do you think around going to just straight up lie about having been vaccinated? if it’s 1/3rd of those it’s 20%
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Replying to @DanielleFong @DrEricDing
100% will lie. You clearly do not work with the public. I have people lie when I can look at their information.
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Replying to @padme911 @DrEricDing
100%? you’re exaggerating, but if indeed the 60% of totally unvaxxed people lie and don’t wear masks at all then yes an outbreak is inevitable. the vaccine will protect most of those who take it, but it will still spread among the lying population...
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Replying to @DanielleFong @DrEricDing
Again you clearly don't work in the field because yes, most of them straight up lie. Especially when they are making it so easy. All you have to say is that you got the vaccine. No proof. Who is going to stop you? Even if 50% lie, it will cause an outbreak.
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you don’t have to be working in the field to have a decent assessment of the situation, Youyang Gu had the best epi model despite his lack of background. i still think 50% is a really high % of liars, but if you really think that, i see why you disagree with this cdc guidance
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Replying to @DanielleFong @padme911
I agree with both of you. Super tricky. We abandoned precautionary principle today
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Replying to @DrEricDing @padme911
yeah i mean if it was my decision this is not how i would do it and i think the result will have to be a lot of monitoring for scofflaws and variants. i hope, though, that the result will be more people get vaccinated, and it will actually just work
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