It’s kinda funny how global political and corporate leadership has clearly decided to learn nothing from Covid. Nice that we got new vaccine technology out of it, but otherwise it’s “carry on, nothing to see here.” Just a bunch of shock debt.
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I don’t entirely blame them. The lessons as currently being discussed are way too abstract to be actionable “Hedge against China” “Run more fat, less lean.” “Diversify business models” What actually changed: Orgs: buy zoom and sanitizer Individuals: more toilet paper
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The biggest deep, lasting change needed is to run more fat. Give up some capital mobility efficiency for resilience. I need to dust off my old material on fat thinking and expand it to TED-talk level grand theory. I’ve been mailing it around more than usual but it’s too modest.
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Fat as in both wealth in less fungible forms than money, and more redundancy. The inflation in highly financialized asset classes is something like a flash flood. Downpour of money supply, but it can only swirl around flooding the surface. It can’t penetrate for whatever reason.
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Here’s a subtle point I think people are just beginning to realize. If capital chasing returns has nowhere to go, and there are no true risk-adjusted higher returns to be found, it kinda doesn’t matter if it moves at all, and it can also be stored in less fungible states.
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the spreadsheet is a wmd; it has given legions of mbas the power to optimize away any buffer or illegible benefit and call the gains profit
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