idk, the problem is like, 3-6 orders of magnitude bigger than people want to deal with mentally, and giant engineering projects fail all the time, civilizations fall. if the first outpost on mars doesn’t turn into roanoke 2.0 it will be a miracle
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Geoengineering Earth is easier than terraforming Mars. But if we can’t solve climate change in the next couple of decades, and it’s as disruptive as currently believed (or more so), the expected value of interplanetary colonization becomes higher, not lower. Both the P and the V.
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And to the extent that climate change is a disruption, I don’t think it’ll be existential. So rather than thinking successful colonization would be optimistic, I think everyone everywhere dying on Earth before we become interplanetary is extremely pessimistic.
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