In the entire history of movement we have never once been able to successfully stop the mass of humanity from movement. It is in our nature. I think you are trying to engineer non-engineerable phenomena and that it will not work out and that we should focus on other pressing stuf
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Replying to @StewartalsopIII
look, maybe you can see it this way -- it has succeeded and still worth it to the populations to nova scotia and australia and new zealand and wherever to hold strong and maintain contact tracing and testing and travel restrictions in case it mutates and gets far worse.
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Replying to @DanielleFong
It has not succeeded in the vast majority of places that have tried. It does not make sense to continue the charade in those places.
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Replying to @StewartalsopIII
have they really tried? i agree that once contact tracing is totally overwhelmed there’s no putting the genie back in the bottle but sensible policies like indoor public mask use and testing / quarantine or vaccination with travel has a clear influence on the spread of variants
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Replying to @DanielleFong @StewartalsopIII
it’s not a binary fail, things can get worse and probably will by default
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Replying to @DanielleFong
It is a binary fail. This virus is endemic. We have other problems like cancer screenings, tuberculosis and 150 million people who were just shoved right back into extreme poverty due to lockdowns. Real death will come from that and it will eclipse covid deaths.
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Replying to @StewartalsopIII
i agree that lcokdowns can't be maintained forever, which is why the effectiveness of other interventions from vaccines to masks has to make up for it. i simply don't agree that letting the virus totally rip with be an outcome 'just as bad', it could be unboundedly worse
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Replying to @DanielleFong
If you look at florida, Sweden, tennessee and south Dakota we see no effect from interventions with a sample size that is in the millions.
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Replying to @StewartalsopIII
with my view on this from data from a lot of different countries including Sweden just doesn't support that, tho i'm sure there are cases where the effectiveness is less clear, swamped by something else (eg. weather? particular factors eg. ventilation, a/c, travel, variants?)
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Replying to @DanielleFong
Please cite the data that shows wildly different per capita hospitalization and mortality rates in those regions from those that lockdowned, which is your implicit premise.
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this isn’t exactly what you asked for but this is a powerful meta-analysis https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0/figures/1 … some other persuasive data comes from tracking restaurant expenditures, a very effective leading signal as i recallpic.twitter.com/6MfzspEVip
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