Laying down a marker: There is not actually going to be a “vaccine passport” system ever in any generalized usage. AFAIK the only such system in the world is for Yellow Fever, and I’m just extremely skeptical a similar program will actually be rolled out for COVID.
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The issue with Yellow Fever is that because it is vector-borne the effective R value on an infected person arriving during mosquito season can be... 100? 1000? 10,000?
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More credible vector borne diseases during mosquito season appear to have R values from 6 to 12 and they can re-endemicize (is that a word?) pretty quickly, so the argument for the vaccination passport system is strong. Plus MUCH higher lethality, especially for kids.
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Also a lot of countries have eradicated YF so they now have rather LOW vaccination rates. But for COVID, with natural of 2-4, WAY lower IFR (esp for kids), and huge vaccination programs in operation, and with it already endemic ~everywhere...
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I just don’t see there ever actually being a political coalition capable of pulling this off beyond maybe in a few countries in Asia, but once tourism resumes I believe they will relent.
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It’s not that COVID isn’t bad, it is, but the payoff to imposing such a program will just be a whoooole lot lower than the payoff for Yellow Fever, which is one of the most horrific and awful diseases to afflict humanity.
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Replying to @lymanstoneky
I agree. So how do we reopen borders like US Canada. Or do they just stay shut or badly restricted for a long time?
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the border can track that you’ve had it. from that, the i’ve already had a vaccine exception will materialize, but having the default just be a booster shot / test at the border could allow countries to continue some function
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