I thought (along with many others including the CDC) that we could control this through policy interventions That would mean that this many dead would be the result of policy failures. I couldn't believe that we would see a crisis this big without an effective response policy
back then i went by the following logic; some cases with low or no fever, or asymptomatic spread (anecdotal reports) widespread in china, massive shutdowns. r0 over 2, exp growth, have to give contact tracing a chance to catch up well informed/ strong leader could have done it
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I honestly don't believe this is the case The data out of China was really sparse in Jan 2020. We had only a few cases here. It looked like SARS (which wasn't that big of a deal in the US... certainly not worth locking down the border)
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i had early indications and reacted really quickly, but it definitely didn’t look like sars-1 to me,
@xuezhao was reporting on this Jan 23rd 2020 and after that i read the who reports every day. maybe it’s impossible to imagine a govt acting faster than me but they have the cia! - Show replies
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