I'm now convinced that my big error was in believing that interventions would be effective They have not been There are two interventions that seem effective: 1) extremely strict border control 2) a population willing to self isolate for very long periods of time
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I thought (along with many others including the CDC) that we could control this through policy interventions That would mean that this many dead would be the result of policy failures. I couldn't believe that we would see a crisis this big without an effective response policy
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I did not even begin to entertain the idea that we could implement massive long-running state sanctioned restrictions on social and business gatherings that *wouldn't* be massively effective Here we are and they simply haven't been
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I think it's instructive that, based on COVID deaths, the best state is Hawaii, an island state with strict border control and massive penalties for disregarding restrictions. And their death rate would still put us at over 100K dead nationwide
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I am, to this day, uncertain where "blame" lies for the death toll in this crisis Very few of the people who call COVID a massive policy failure have any real concrete vision for how we could have stopped this It always ends up boiling down to "We should be New Zealand"
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We are obviously not New Zealand, so what's the next step in this? I honestly don't hear any ideas that can be measured against reality as plausible solutions
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Replying to @politicalmath
it’s arguable the numbers could have been exponentially better had there been more rapid response in testing and mask wearing as well as a much wider travel ban early until testing could be ramped up. because of the very rapid growth in cases without a response small changes impt
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Replying to @DanielleFong
That's possible... But how would that have stopped the winter surge? We were already masked up, already had massive testing, and air travel was down by 50%-60% year-over-year.
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Replying to @politicalmath
oh man i legit think people's behavior could have been a good clip 30-40% better if trump wasn't encouraging it, but the whole thing spun completely out of control first with the state protests and then after george floyd, you could not count on a high level of compliance after
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Replying to @DanielleFong @politicalmath
it would have been enough to put Rt well below 1in pretty much all states? i mean i'm absolutely speculating but I think there's a big behavioral component. the other big big thing besides masks in ventilation, the focus on ventilation outdoors. could have mobilized that
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there were specific things like funding prestige ameritech (mask manufacturer directly asking for a contract from congress!) or funding anti coronavirus research (scientific funding slowed down probably! nih etc. not responsive...) and right now, genetic testing for variants
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