Agreed. It’ll be interesting to compare localized events like BLM that don’t have the travel and dining component and result in so few cases, versus the events that are outdoors complemented by time in bars, restaurants, hotels, cabs, etc.
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Replying to @sacca @mariachong
I did not see any convincing data of a spike from BLM protests—should have been observable given the scale. Of course, it was possible especially if it spilled indoors—but they seemed to be outdoors/masked. The widely-condemned Lake of the Ozarks party also didn't cause a spike.
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After a year of effort, I know of very, very few documented cases of purely outdoor transmission—and those took work: lengthy, close contact, huffing and puffing from a close distance—let alone superspreading. Good to be reasonably cautious, but not high on my risk calculations.
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The Washington Policy Center is a rightwing think tank that is wrong on almost every issue they promote (privatizing schools, denying climate change, removing protections for natural areas in the state). Sorry, not a good source.
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I’m saying it would be better to find a non-politicized source. I actually believe protests caused some spread. It’s impossible they didn’t. As a conservative (30 years now), I’m not a fan of emotional arguments. So if you have a better source, please share.
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I haven’t studied this, so I’m not qualified to comment + it’s not my area of interest other than the medical studies I’ve read show outdoor activity is generally safe b/c highest drivers of transmission are indoors.
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just taking a peek at the data... (not sure if this is useful) raw stats on Hennepin County (Minneapolis). not sure if it's a signal or not. cases rise after the George Floyd murder, but not exponentially. the real peak happens later. tough to disentangle.pic.twitter.com/OPElZR87lJ
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