My Substack post about asymptomatic/presymptomatic COVID transmission is up now. About that Asymptomatic Spread...https://georgiboorman.substack.com/p/about-that-asymptomatic-spread?r=2k1wi&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter …
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Replying to @DraganOrlich @georgi_boorman
this seems very, very different from what other studies have shown / what i've previously understood. e.g. this is a detailed study incorporating contact tracing from Wuhan, i haven't dug into where the discrepancy between this & what Georgi reports yet https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5 …pic.twitter.com/hJjLKHwSAL
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likewise this statement. in the situation in the UK for example showing rising cases with even significant restrictions in areas due to the new variant, they went into lockdown and the cases are declining. lots of studies on this...pic.twitter.com/6myr3xI93e
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this statement out of a contact tracing effort in Guangzhou seems probably close to true “0.3% (CI, 0.0 to 1.0%) for asymptomatic to 3.3% (CI, 1.8% to 4.8%) for mild, 5.6% (CI, 4.4% to 6.8%) for moderate, and 6.2% (CI, 3.2% to 9.1%) for severe or critical cases.”
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keep in mind this is something that is likely to change with different living conditions, weather, mask wearing, and new variants: the new Brazilian and UK variants appear to have a higher attack ratio. overall it looks like a lot of spread is still presymptomatic & some a & sub
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so I really disagree with her overall tone and conclusion. limiting small gatherings and lockdowns do work, keeping spread down to limit impact on hospitals and having bad variants evolve is imprudent.
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that being said, the situation might actually change a lot based on e.g. mask wearing, ventilation, weather, even the language that people speak. A language with a lot of plosive sounds might still produce lots of aerosols even if people have no cough. larger homes / AC etc.
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