My Substack post about asymptomatic/presymptomatic COVID transmission is up now. About that Asymptomatic Spread...https://georgiboorman.substack.com/p/about-that-asymptomatic-spread?r=2k1wi&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter …
this statement out of a contact tracing effort in Guangzhou seems probably close to true “0.3% (CI, 0.0 to 1.0%) for asymptomatic to 3.3% (CI, 1.8% to 4.8%) for mild, 5.6% (CI, 4.4% to 6.8%) for moderate, and 6.2% (CI, 3.2% to 9.1%) for severe or critical cases.”
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keep in mind this is something that is likely to change with different living conditions, weather, mask wearing, and new variants: the new Brazilian and UK variants appear to have a higher attack ratio. overall it looks like a lot of spread is still presymptomatic & some a & sub
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so I really disagree with her overall tone and conclusion. limiting small gatherings and lockdowns do work, keeping spread down to limit impact on hospitals and having bad variants evolve is imprudent.
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