My Substack post about asymptomatic/presymptomatic COVID transmission is up now. About that Asymptomatic Spread...https://georgiboorman.substack.com/p/about-that-asymptomatic-spread?r=2k1wi&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter …
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Replying to @DraganOrlich @georgi_boorman
this seems very, very different from what other studies have shown / what i've previously understood. e.g. this is a detailed study incorporating contact tracing from Wuhan, i haven't dug into where the discrepancy between this & what Georgi reports yet https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5 …pic.twitter.com/hJjLKHwSAL
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likewise this statement. in the situation in the UK for example showing rising cases with even significant restrictions in areas due to the new variant, they went into lockdown and the cases are declining. lots of studies on this...pic.twitter.com/6myr3xI93e
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once you've already f'd up enough maybe you have to resort to lockdown to get things manageable. Sweden didn't have a lockdown, which is costly, but they have had problems, and it would be incorrect to say that they didn't shut down small and large gatherings, WFH, contact trace
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Replying to @DanielleFong @SamuelP44848491 and
with the new variant even at Tier 4 restrictions it wasn't stopping the growth. The UK Lockdown is now succeeding at keeping Rt below 0.8, so while I disagree with Boris on a lot of stuff I really don't disagree here. Drastic times call for drastic measures
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but a collection of strategies for mitigation, widespread ppe, mask ordinaces rapid testing avoiding small gatherings avoid large gatherings work from home encouragement contact tracing etc it may be possible to defeat the spread without costly lockdowns.
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