New variants seem scary. Mutations obey laws of biology that make them less frightening than the media & leaders would like. No time for more than this: Corona is tame compared to a diabolical mutating virus called Influenza. We survive new flu each year, so fear not Covid19.https://twitter.com/DanielleFong/status/1356811341953138691 …
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Replying to @MLevitt_NP2013
in this case, the asymptomatic spread and early in incubation / before most symptoms show spread means that the typical evolutionary tradeoff between contagiousness and lethality is much less powerful. The B.1.1.7 variant is both more contagious and (probably) more lethal
9 replies 2 retweets 18 likes -
Replying to @DanielleFong @MLevitt_NP2013
Presymptomatic spread is also "a thing" with influenza. Historically, however, despite this, new influenza mutations most always have tended to head in the direction of lower lethality. I don't believe we have adequate data at this point to claim increased lethality for B.1.1.7.
2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes -
Replying to @KarenK30622352 @MLevitt_NP2013
- the evidence for B.1.1.7 being more lethal is not definitive, but it isn't weaker, re: presymptomatic flu transmission - this review says the evidence is scant: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3322057/ … - this study documents 1 potential finding 1 day prior to symptoms,https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3322057/ …
1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes -
the lower the lag, the less the effect. it doesn't seem to be very strong for flu.
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regarding evidence for B.1.1.7 having a higher total lethality -- the papers discussed, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/955239/NERVTAG_paper_on_variant_of_concern__VOC__B.1.1.7.pdf … and expert reaction: https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-suggestion-made-in-downing-street-press-conference-that-the-new-uk-variant-may-be-linked-to-higher-mortality-than-the-old-variant-nervtag-paper-also-now-published/ …pic.twitter.com/uyEr1dDyiX
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