Michael, I don't see how you can make a confident prediction about this. The outcome seems to be largely determined by the emergence of and trajectory of variants. Depending, it could range by more than an order of magnitude. 1918 flu killed ~3% of world pop, a variant mainly
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the point i was making here is that it was a variant of that flu in the 2nd / 3rd wave that started being really effective in taking down even strong immune systems
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50 million died! it was nearly 3% of the world population! a third of humanity was infected. almost all cases of influenza subsequently have been caused by descendants of the 1918 virus. it isn't true that it's gone away, even if our collective immune defences mitigate itpic.twitter.com/74Ul1H8Bha
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you've missed my point, which is that we haven't seen the end of this virus in terms of severity of disease, or lethality. the spanish flu became >25x more deadly, mutating in the squalid conditions of the trenches of europe during ww1, in a young population. what can happen here
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south africa (pop 59mm) is one of the worst hit countries in africa, it’s a big assumption that it’s like that everywhere. travel & tourism shutting down has delayed spread worldwide in countries with good monitoring by many months seropositivity isn’t covid, technically
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billions is on the upper end of the reasonable range, and doesn’t imply immunity as the p.1 variant seems ri demonstrate
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