Michael, I don't see how you can make a confident prediction about this. The outcome seems to be largely determined by the emergence of and trajectory of variants. Depending, it could range by more than an order of magnitude. 1918 flu killed ~3% of world pop, a variant mainly
-
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
Replying to @dhoze1 @MLevitt_NP2013 and
again, this doesn’t kick in when there’s a long period in the initial phase of the disease where your symptoms are mild or non existent and you’re still spreading. in particular this trend is contradicted by the b.1.1.7 variant
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @DanielleFong @dhoze1 and
The point is the more people is infected and overcome the virus, the less transmissible it is, or the less harm it makes. Remember: all that measures aim to avoid the collapse of the HealthCare System, just that. BTW, these measures wasn't recommended by the
@CDCgov1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @angeluisfc @dhoze1 and
no, that’s a completely separate effect, and furthermore, the more infections, the more chances it has to mutate
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @DanielleFong @dhoze1 and
Mutations doesn’t mean more or less infective or lethal, just to be accurate
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @angeluisfc @dhoze1 and
sure, but when mutations sum up to something acting differently it’s called a variant, that’s what we are discussing
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @DanielleFong @angeluisfc and
Norovirus, influenza, adenovirus, rinovirus, measles, chickenpox, coronavirus... Have been replicating hundreds of years, to levels orders of magnitude greater than C19. After all of that (some of them with larger R) they are essentially the SAME virus to this day.
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @BuenoEnfurecido @angeluisfc and
some of the viruses we have already defeated are / were super terrible, like smallpox and polio. flu changes a lot. the p.1 variant in brazil has a vastly higher attack rate and evades prior immunity.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @DanielleFong @BuenoEnfurecido and
Could you let me see the study about the p.1 variant in Brazil? I assume u refer to C19
3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
here is an estimate of the attack rate in Manaus, which is *much* higher! https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6526/288 …pic.twitter.com/VkmRCv9FDB
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
