Michael, I don't see how you can make a confident prediction about this. The outcome seems to be largely determined by the emergence of and trajectory of variants. Depending, it could range by more than an order of magnitude. 1918 flu killed ~3% of world pop, a variant mainly
here is a good study published in The Lancet on the situation in Manaus.https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext …
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Well, the first explanation is maybe there were no herd inmunity
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they estimated seroprevalence at 76% 8 months ago. it could be that the immunity declines over that timespan or that it evades immunity, but this has to be combined with the fact that the mutation modifies the spike proteins and the vaccines are showing reduced effectiveness
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