Michael, I don't see how you can make a confident prediction about this. The outcome seems to be largely determined by the emergence of and trajectory of variants. Depending, it could range by more than an order of magnitude. 1918 flu killed ~3% of world pop, a variant mainly
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the most compelling piece of anecdata i've heard comes from an interview with contact tracers working in Manaus, heard over the BBC World Service. "previously, we would contact trace people, and of 3 contacts maybe one would get the disease, now it is *everybody"
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circumstantial evidence around immune escape comes from the second peak in Manaus, worse than the first, after an estimated 75% of the city was already infected, from the underperformance of the Sinovac vaccine 50% instead of 80% expected in the Brazilian trial & E485K mutation
End of conversation
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