New variants seem scary. Mutations obey laws of biology that make them less frightening than the media & leaders would like. No time for more than this: Corona is tame compared to a diabolical mutating virus called Influenza. We survive new flu each year, so fear not Covid19.https://twitter.com/DanielleFong/status/1356811341953138691 …
-
-
Replying to @MLevitt_NP2013
in this case, the asymptomatic spread and early in incubation / before most symptoms show spread means that the typical evolutionary tradeoff between contagiousness and lethality is much less powerful. The B.1.1.7 variant is both more contagious and (probably) more lethal
9 replies 2 retweets 18 likes -
Replying to @DanielleFong @MLevitt_NP2013
Asymptomatic spread isn't a thing
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @Mxpro32Shaun @MLevitt_NP2013
presymptomatic / subsymptomatic spread is a thing and nearly as hard to control asymptomatic spread probably is a thing. this meta analysis puts the attack rate at 0.35x (95% CI, 0.1-1.27). both pre and asymptomatic spread effect evolution forceshttps://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003346 …
2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes -
This doesn't say what you think it says! It basically admits huge gaps in knowledge and assumes overestimation of asymptomatic transmissions. This bigger one contradicts it concluding that asymp household transmission is tiny-0.7% of 77,758 participants 54 studies across world...
2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
i don’t see where they, as you say, assume overestimation of asymptomatic transmission, but, in the meta analysis of the attack rate that you shared below, the confidence intervals overlap with the metaanalysis above, indeed each range overlaps the mean of the other
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
