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DanielleFong's profile
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@DanielleFong

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Empire of the Future
Joined February 2008

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    1. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani 2 Feb 2021

      Marco Piani Retweeted Michael Levitt

      IMO, @MLevitt_NP2013 's estimate of one month of additional risk is not even close. @MLevitt_NP2013 wrote here https://medium.com/@michael.levitt/the-excess-burden-of-death-from-coronavirus-covid-19-is-closer-to-a-month-than-to-a-year-83fca74455b4 … referencing the article here https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196 … by @d_spiegel It is clear that @d_spiegel is considering the total number of deaths...https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1356663220354703360 …

      Marco Piani added,

      Michael Levitt @MLevitt_NP2013
      Excess death imprecise: 1) Reporting delays 2) Expected deaths from trend-line or previous years 3) Which years 4) Adjustment by age group population. We find 2020 US excess is 370K, 1.23X expected of 3,000K. Increase is 1.5 months normal death, close to my 22 Mar. estimate. https://twitter.com/USMortality/status/1355286989445054465 … pic.twitter.com/h9gd20xpjl
      5 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Colin Angus‏ @VictimOfMaths 2 Feb 2021
      Replying to @Marco_Piani @MLevitt_NP2013 @d_spiegel

      I would pay good money to watch a debate about this between those two.

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Michael Levitt‏ @MLevitt_NP2013 2 Feb 2021
      Replying to @VictimOfMaths @Marco_Piani @d_spiegel

      Which two do you mean? I am happy to debate anyone as I know my numbers.

      3 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
    4.  🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 2 Feb 2021
      Replying to @MLevitt_NP2013 @VictimOfMaths and

      Michael, I don't see how you can make a confident prediction about this. The outcome seems to be largely determined by the emergence of and trajectory of variants. Depending, it could range by more than an order of magnitude. 1918 flu killed ~3% of world pop, a variant mainly

      22 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Cheryl Grainger  😊‏ @CherylGrainger4 3 Feb 2021
      Replying to @DanielleFong @MLevitt_NP2013 and

      Nature Jan 20 “Mutation..conjures fears of unexpected & freakish changes. Ill-informed discussions of mutations thrive during virus outbreaks...mutations are a natural part of virus life cycle & rarely impact outbreaks dramatically.” This is normal - the testing is not normal

      2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
       🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 3 Feb 2021
      Replying to @CherylGrainger4 @MLevitt_NP2013 and

      i don’t know what you mean by “the testing is not normal” but now we have seen multiple waves of mutation leading to variants with distinctly more infectious and potentially more deadly behavior

      5:48 AM - 3 Feb 2021
      • 1 Like
      • THEE Infrastructure Week
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Denis Tremblay‏ @DenisTr30468930 3 Feb 2021
          Replying to @DanielleFong @CherylGrainger4 and

          No every scientist in the field of ID agrees on this. The jury is still out. Now is not yet the time to panic.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3.  🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 3 Feb 2021
          Replying to @DenisTr30468930 @CherylGrainger4 and

          panic is usually not the right response but from my perspective the evidence is strong and getting stronger, but with exponential threats you need to react before it is obvious!

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies

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