*in particular* note that this virus is looking significantly more contagious and more deadly at the same time in contradiction to the trend of more contagious pathogens to be less deadly, maybe related to the fact that it is most infectious early, asymptomatic spreadhttps://twitter.com/DanielleFong/status/1352738045238378496 …
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Replying to @DanielleFong
Speculation: In the next 30 days enough people in vulnerable populations will be vaccinated that 95% of the severe impacts (mortality/hospitalizations) will disappear by end of February/middle of March. CDC has B.1.1.7 at 50% of US cases March 1 1/x
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Replying to @Mihoda @DanielleFong
Have you figured in an efficacy of 84% at 65 + and decreasing with age? Folks may want to not pop the corks from the bottle just yet. Compound that with an older population who have a short immune “memory” . Bleak.
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Replying to @postbacforever @Mihoda
Where are you getting the decreasing with age business?
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Replying to @DanielleFong @Mihoda
From the EAU and data each company has released. Summary is half way down. Under “how well do vaccines work”http://www.ucihealth.org/covid-19/covid-vaccine-faq …
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Replying to @postbacforever @Mihoda
oh, yes, sorry, brain fart I thought you were suggesting the opposite for a second. Yes, as the population vaccinated gets older it gets less effective and we do not know how well the vaccine will work in the most compromised of patients as they weren't accepted for the trials.pic.twitter.com/FoseWQcwHk
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Replying to @DanielleFong @postbacforever
The "Over age 65: 86% efficacy *" refers to all people over 65. It doesn't give the efficacy for someone 65 exactly. Since the relationship between age and efficacy is almost certainly not linear, the statement isn't very useful.
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you're right it depends a lot on the distribution and also who ends up chosen for trials, but i agree with you broadly for this vaccine for this variant.
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