There's a lot more than "misinfo" appearing in high level data. UK and Israel mRNA outcomes already adverse vs. slow US and classic vaxing China, Russia, rest of world.https://twitter.com/darshandorsey/status/1345385628649852936?s=19 …
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Darshan Dorsey Retweeted Darshan Dorsey
There's a lot more than "misinfo" appearing in high level data. UK and Israel mRNA outcomes already adverse vs. slow US and classic vaxing China, Russia, rest of world.https://twitter.com/darshandorsey/status/1345385628649852936?s=19 …
Darshan Dorsey added,
why would you expect to see substantially more than a ~10% reduction in R with 10% vaccination if it’s already this widespread?
Who said anything about R? New Cases and Deaths are accelerating in the two most mRNA vaccinated populations, with US improvement reversing as well. Timing of trend changes (vs. rest of world) is a smoking gun.
the vaccine will only reduce infections relative to the proportion of the relevant population vaccinated. only reason to expect better than this is in bias toward those likely to get it (e.g. hcws) (and not those most at risk if they get it e.g. elderly) but hcws also have ppe
even this will have a delay in effectiveness by a week or so. infections can increase for all of the other reasons infections can increase. (e.g. travel, holiday gatherings, winter season, travel, mask refusal / compliance exhaustion, mutation) the other factors still dominate.
it’s going to be hard to factor out the other effects to obtain an estimate of the overall effectiveness in eliminating spread (just guessing it will be very hard until maybe a third of the pop is vaccinated, maybe more?) but you have to at least try imo
the UK has had to fight an outbreak of the more contagious strain, which in some areas like london represents more than 70% of the infections iirc
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