There's a lot more than "misinfo" appearing in high level data. UK and Israel mRNA outcomes already adverse vs. slow US and classic vaxing China, Russia, rest of world.https://twitter.com/darshandorsey/status/1345385628649852936?s=19 …
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the vaccine will only reduce infections relative to the proportion of the relevant population vaccinated. only reason to expect better than this is in bias toward those likely to get it (e.g. hcws) (and not those most at risk if they get it e.g. elderly) but hcws also have ppe
even this will have a delay in effectiveness by a week or so. infections can increase for all of the other reasons infections can increase. (e.g. travel, holiday gatherings, winter season, travel, mask refusal / compliance exhaustion, mutation) the other factors still dominate.
it’s going to be hard to factor out the other effects to obtain an estimate of the overall effectiveness in eliminating spread (just guessing it will be very hard until maybe a third of the pop is vaccinated, maybe more?) but you have to at least try imo
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