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DanielleFong's profile
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@DanielleFong

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@DanielleFong

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Empire of the Future
Joined February 2008

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    1. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

      Trevor Bedford Retweeted Trevor Bedford

      With data that has emerged in the last week, I'm now 80-90% convinced that infections by the UK variant virus (Pangolin lineage B.1.1.7, @nextstrain clade 20B/501Y.V1) result in, on average, more onward infections, ie are more transmissible. 1/10https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1341446447045087232 …

      Trevor Bedford added,

      Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrb
      Following up on general thoughts on antigenic drift of #COVID19 from this weekend, I wanted to discuss what we know about the new variant of SARS-CoV-2 thats emerged in the UK. 1/17 https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1340409968818671616 …
      Show this thread
      76 replies 978 retweets 2,057 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

      My thinking primarily comes from three data points: 1. rapid increase in frequency of variant over wildtype 2. higher secondary attack rate of variant than wildtype 3. increased viral loads of variant over wildtype as measured by Ct 2/10

      6 replies 71 retweets 344 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

      For point 1 (increase in frequency) we have pretty much the same data as of a week ago, where we see increasing frequency of variant over wildtype across the UK. This can be readily seen in this analysis by @TWenseleers. 3/10 https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1343575693544796160 …pic.twitter.com/lWu5kTDWgo

      4 replies 31 retweets 180 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

      For point 2 (secondary attack rate), we have new data from the second @PHE_uk technical report (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201 …) where a matched cohort study was conducting comparing 1769 wildtype cases and 1769 matched variant cases. 4/10

      1 reply 30 retweets 158 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

      By integrating contact tracing data @PHE_uk was able to compare secondary attack rate between wildtype cases and variant cases, where ~10% of contacts of wildtype cases go on to be detected as COVID+ compared to ~15% of contacts of variant cases. 5/10pic.twitter.com/sLSVcIzVpT

      5 replies 45 retweets 191 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

      Both increase in frequency and secondary attack rate indicate essentially the same quantity, which is the number of secondary infections left by a primary infection, ie R, and tells us that realized transmission rate is likely higher in variant than wildtype infections. 6/10

      2 replies 30 retweets 176 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

      For point 3 (viral load), we have new data as reported by Michael Kidd, @alanmcn1 et al (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248834v1 …) that shows that variant cases (as identified by S dropout) have Ct values ~4 units lower than wildtype cases. 7/10pic.twitter.com/ZIQQH1NFZS

      10 replies 63 retweets 226 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

      This translates to an estimated 10 to 100-fold increase in average viral load of variant cases. This gives a hypothesized mechanism for increased transmissibility, ie individuals infected by the variant will on average expel more virus and be consequently more infectious. 8/10

      13 replies 127 retweets 396 likes
      Show this thread
       🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 29 Dec 2020
      Replying to @trvrb

      this seemingly conflicts with reports that viral load is correlated with severity, yet at the same time this variant is supposedly not more severe? there are probably many subtleties...

      1:40 PM - 29 Dec 2020
      • 9 Likes
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      2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
        1. S&O (mostly S on twit)‏ @SO52469807 29 Dec 2020
          Replying to @DanielleFong @trvrb

          ... and not much data yet

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Richie NJ Richard‏ @ImpactMovie 29 Dec 2020
          Replying to @DanielleFong @trvrb

          I'm confused on this point as well. Everything I've heard, higher load=more severe

          0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
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