Good thread on testing social science predictions and the danger of p-hacking, specifically with regard to the prediction Turchin made.https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1273258761382031360 …
i thought I was shown numbers there there actually were several unusual fluctuations in murder, initially down due to the lockdown (none in miami!), then up (at the time the calendar marker was the riots - i would also want a geographic analysis to separate out economic distress)
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Another factor that may depress actual deaths relative to previous cycles is medical advances.https://twitter.com/robkhenderson/status/1305238611558834181 …
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Interesting concepts turchin has. Without meaning to sound dark i think John Hayes of Ghost locomotion sums it up for me. "Tradegy is conserved" in society. Why that happens who knows but i believe hes largely correct. The 50and100 year turchin cycle is a curiosity. Bet hes right
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But i believe the preexisting cycles may be modified. Just humanity is very young 5000 years approx and were only just about tooling up to make significant alterations to life cycles. Violence and social dysfunction can be altered but were largely poor eneough at implementation.
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If Turchin is correct, i think the next cycle will happen about 5 years after people believe there role is worthless to contribute to society , a trigger point could be widescale implementation of autonomous vechicles/trucking. So in 3 years will be selfdrive plus 5 year buffer.
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