I would like to hear predictions for the US elections from the set of people who accurately predicted the pandemichttps://twitter.com/interpretantion/status/1307305216933597185 …
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thanks, & I am steering clear for a reason! the chance of some kind of disputed election when there are so many weaknesses and the leadership of the GOP is steering it towards dispute, I recall
@vgr saying the chance of a peaceful transfer of power was like 5% & it seemed right1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes -
Replying to @DanielleFong @MechanicalMonk1 and
modal outcome is like, there is a huge bias towards democrats voting early and over mail, which means that there will likely be a significant early polling bias on the day. this gives ample time for media outlets like Fox and Sinclair to prematurely call it, which Trump may back
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Replying to @DanielleFong @MechanicalMonk1 and
I don't know how other states do it, but in CA at least ballots received before election day make up the very first results announced. The ones received too late for that plus provisional ballots are what drags the count out.
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Replying to @stevebloom55 @MechanicalMonk1 and
hard to say what the relative numbers will be this time, situation is totally unprecedented.
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Replying to @DanielleFong @MechanicalMonk1 and
Lots more very early voting because of postal concerns, it looks like to me.
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yes, but how to sample how many ahead of the last minute you can send it in? idk.
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