Skip to content
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
DanielleFong's profile
🤷🏻‍♀️
🤷🏻‍♀️
 🤷🏻‍♀️
@DanielleFong

Tweets

 🤷🏻‍♀️

@DanielleFong

💓

Empire of the Future
Joined February 2008

Tweets

  • © 2022 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 12 Aug 2020

      There has been a bit of skepticism for my model's estimate that 20% of Florida (& other states) have been infected. http://covid19-projections.com/us-fl  While I'm not claiming that this is necessarily true, here are some common mistakes I've seen people make when estimating true infections.pic.twitter.com/BpRpVTB54a

      11 replies 46 retweets 175 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 12 Aug 2020

      1) If we use cases and infection-to-case ratio to estimate true infections, the result we get is an estimate of the true infections from *~2 week prior*, not *right now*. This is because cases lag infections. This matters when 1-3% of the population are being infected weekly.

      1 reply 1 retweet 29 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 12 Aug 2020

      Youyang Gu Retweeted Trevor Bedford

      1a) Also note that the infection-to-case ratio was >10x in March/April due to lack of testing, skewing the overall ratio upwards. Test positivity plays a role as well. At 10-20%, there is a high chance that we are missing more infections than usual.https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1286092976377049089 …

      Youyang Gu added,

      Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrb
      One caution however, this improvement may not exist across the board. With the surge in Arizona, Florida and Texas, testing capacity has become bottlenecked again, which may push the infection-to-case ratio back up to some degree. 12/13
      Show this thread
      1 reply 1 retweet 25 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 12 Aug 2020

      At its peak in July, Florida reported ~12,000 new cases per day. Our peak estimate for daily infections is 72,000 new infections. The implied infection-to-case ratio is 6x. The lower bound is 4x and the upper bound is 8x. That is largely consistent with recent findings.pic.twitter.com/N2R8XaZGpv

      2 replies 1 retweet 22 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 12 Aug 2020

      2) If we use deaths and IFR to estimate true infections, the result we get is an estimate of true infections from *~4 weeks prior*, not *right now*. This is because reported deaths lag infections. This matters when 1-3% of the population are being infected weekly.

      1 reply 1 retweet 24 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 12 Aug 2020

      2a) If we use deaths and age-adjusted IFR to estimate true infections, it's also important to account for excess deaths and the lower median age of infections. This matters when many states are undercounting deaths and when young adults have a significantly lower fatality rate.

      1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 12 Aug 2020

      A common mistake is to take 8,750 reported deaths in FL & divide by 0.5% IFR to get 1.75M, or 8% infected. But that's how many people were infected *4 weeks ago*, under the assumptions that a) there's zero undercounting & b) age distribution of infections matches the population.

      1 reply 2 retweets 30 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 12 Aug 2020

      Youyang Gu Retweeted Prof Francois Balloux

      3) If we use serology studies to estimate true infections, keep in mind that a) it may take weeks to develop antibodies, b) not everyone develops detectable amount of antibodies c) sensitivity of tests vary, & d) antibodies levels may decline over time.https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1290632180897665026 …

      Youyang Gu added,

      Prof Francois BallouxVerified account @BallouxFrancois
      New results from a massive #COVID19 serological survey in Italy: only ~2.5% Antibody positive! As with previous studies of this type, something doesn't add up ... Hint: ~37% testing positive lost taste/smell but only ~25% of people losing smell/taste tested positive ... https://twitter.com/stats_q/status/1290330189810081792 …
      5 replies 4 retweets 32 likes
      Show this thread
       🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 12 Aug 2020
      Replying to @youyanggu

      there's a huge cloud of uncertainty for me around serology tests (i am not an expert but) pcr on a specific population is still the gold standard. i wish the info from the diamond princess was made public somehowpic.twitter.com/lz7t84PqG4

      9:54 AM - 12 Aug 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani 12 Aug 2020
          Replying to @DanielleFong @youyanggu

          PCR testing is for active infections (although it may return positive for quite a while). The serology tests can be done later, and among the other things are used to determine the actual number of infections. None of the methods, for either goal, is perfect, unfortunately.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3.  🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 12 Aug 2020
          Replying to @Marco_Piani @youyanggu

          We should at least attempt to determine cross-reactivity levels so that we can determine a bayesian estimator for what is the likelihood that this is covid exposure vs that conferred by the common cold, or? Bad idea for figuring this out: challenge studies with a cold virus

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2022 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info