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DanielleFong's profile
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@DanielleFong

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Empire of the Future
Joined February 2008

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    1. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 10 Aug 2020

      On the surface, it seems like all of Louisiana was heavily impacted after reopening despite already experiencing a significant first wave. But if you break it down by parishes (counties), the data tells a different story. Plots source: @LADeptHealthpic.twitter.com/53dNYh84D4

      5 replies 19 retweets 129 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 10 Aug 2020

      The two parishes that were most significantly impacted in March/April, Orleans Parish (New Orleans) and Jefferson Parish, did not see a major second wave after reopening. The majority of new cases & deaths in Louisiana come from parishes that were largely spared in March/April.pic.twitter.com/YqYdxiH8od

      11 replies 57 retweets 221 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 10 Aug 2020

      For parishes with >100 deaths, If we plot the total deaths per 1M from March-May with the total deaths per 1M from June-August, we see a clear negative correlation (r=-0.8). Parishes that saw more deaths per capita in March-May largely saw fewer deaths per capita in June-August.pic.twitter.com/wNjb7wZBXU

      3 replies 15 retweets 132 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 10 Aug 2020

      So why could that be? It could be that people in those parishes became more aware after the 1st wave and changed their behavior accordingly. Or that a high level of immunity in a population helps curb further spread. I estimate ~20% of New Orleans had been infected by May 1.pic.twitter.com/TP2kMpcP4d

      12 replies 11 retweets 165 likes
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    5. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 10 Aug 2020

      Youyang Gu Retweeted David Wallace-Wells

      The truth is probably a combination of both. We've seen a lot of discussion about policy interventions, but not as much discussion on independent behavioral changes and the role of population heterogeneity on immunity. A piece on this by @dwallacewells:https://twitter.com/dwallacewells/status/1292529555417202688 …

      Youyang Gu added,

      David Wallace-Wells @dwallacewells
      "According to @youyanggu, the best modeler of the pandemic spread, the infection fatality rate has fallen from about 1% in March to about 0.25% today. In other words, the lethality of the disease in the U.S. has fallen by about 3/4 since its peak." https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/08/reasons-for-covid-19-optimism-on-t-cells-and-herd-immunity.html …
      Show this thread
      6 replies 22 retweets 226 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 10 Aug 2020

      Regarding interventions, Orleans Parish (New Orleans) implemented a mask mandate on May 16. Jefferson Parish did not implement a mask mandate until July 1, 46 days later. Yet, neither parishes saw a significant increase in deaths after reopening.pic.twitter.com/6kDZ3wvNt0

      13 replies 80 retweets 248 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 10 Aug 2020

      This is actually a fairly well designed control/test group, given the fact that Orleans/Jefferson Parish are neighbors in the same state. There are some differences as well, namely the demographics and political leanings. Jefferson Parish also has a 10% larger population.pic.twitter.com/Dx4NPClpCt

      3 replies 13 retweets 106 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 10 Aug 2020

      If the mask mandate had a greater role in controlling the spread, then we would've expected to see a steeper increase in cases and deaths in Jefferson Parish than in Orleans Parish. But the current data does not corroborate that theory, at least not in Louisiana.

      9 replies 44 retweets 204 likes
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    9. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @youyanggu

      Thanks for this analysis. Do you ha e estimates for R_t? While it is true that at the end of the day we fundamentally care about how many cases/infections and deaths take place,if R_t is already much below 1 further intervention are not that significant for those, but may...

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @Marco_Piani @youyanggu

      ... have an effect on R_t itself. It think you make good points/observations, but underestimating the potential role of masks because they do not add much when things are somewhat under control is risky. Personally I think of masks as easy wins that can help either decrease...

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
       🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @Marco_Piani @youyanggu

      The other thing I am wondering about is the extent to which heat and humidity and UV light made a difference. It seems that we forgot about this effect, because things were still very bad in highly air conditioned environments. But it could (imo probably is) a large effect

      2:31 PM - 10 Aug 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 1 Like
      • Marco Piani 🤷🏻‍♀️
      0 replies 1 retweet 1 like

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