a lot of the most radical positions on what was going to happen have come true. most were derided as apocalyptic... and yet it's not like everything is actually on fire. seems to me that people just really don't like thinking through substantial consequences
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Replying to @DanielleFong
Remember when 200K deaths seemed so very far away?
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Replying to @DanielleFong @Pravduh15
my whole family spoke about this expecting 30-80mm deaths when all said and done, back in january. we have made substantial gains in treating the disease to bring the death rate down
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Replying to @DanielleFong @Pravduh15
Yeah. I recall some conversations/worry sessions and estimates from early March with my family. I'm actually relatively excited that the US is probably going to get away with < 1m (maybe even just 500k) dead by the time we get a vaccine. I figured for sure it would be 1-5m.
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Replying to @Mihoda @Pravduh15
though some systems are overwhelmed it is not quite as bad as i feared, and the medical interventions are preventing deaths
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Replying to @DanielleFong @Pravduh15
Yeah. Dexamethasone with a 30% effect size! That is huge! Protecting the elderly by isolating and reducing access to nursing homes is huge too. Just right now the data is available on wave two that supports a major reduction in death rate from wave one.
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Replying to @Mihoda @DanielleFong
With insufficient testing of communities and staff (in places of uncontrolled community transmission), can the elderly and nursing home occupants be protected or is this magical thinking? I keep hearing people say this and saying, "it only kills elderly..."
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Seems nearly like magical thinking. Apparently one nursing home had absolutely no deaths because they had next level protection after the chief nurse heard Trump lying about 15 cases going to 0
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Replying to @DanielleFong @Mihoda
I heard about 1 Baltimore nursing home that went to extreme measures and had an infectious disease expert on staff. Everyone else isn't doing so well or obfuscating data.
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