Remember when 200K deaths seemed so very far away?
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no actually
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The mistake we all made was to extrapolate the CFR from the people who presented at hospital into the whole of the population, back when we didn't know about the widespread asymptomatic cases, and immune system resistance (wouldn't call it immunity) of many.
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I still think such death tolls are possible or even probable with mutation if we continue on this path. Having a large population of asymptomatic spreaders is much worse for overall spread as well
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In Europe, we made the mistake of not learning from Asia (masks, travel, distancing, etc.). Then USA made the same mistake. Then Brazil, India.......
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In a nursing home in the UK, the staff lived in the home for a couple of months and they had zero cases. Meanwhile, the nearest care home had many cases and deaths. What the first home did isn't sustainable long term of course, but it shows that it is possible.
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Normalization is powerful.
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