Very probable case of reinfection in an Israeli doctor? I'd give it 99% bc known new chain of transmission and 2 month asymptomatic period w neg tests https://m.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-doctor-reinfected-with-coronavirus-3-months-after-recovering-635550 …
@nanogenomic @DanielleFong @jonst0kes @CT_Bergstrom
a very clear documented case?
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Replying to @GregNN @nanogenomic and
Would be a lot more compelling if we had sequence information.
6 replies 5 retweets 50 likes -
Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @GregNN and
What changes if it turns out to be real reinfection but still very rare?
1 reply 2 retweets 11 likes -
If very rare in general, not much. If very rare at 2 months, rare at 3 months, becoming common at 4 months, common at 5 months, we've got problems.
4 replies 11 retweets 97 likes -
Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @AeonCoin and
That is exactly my concern, would we get any other signal for common at 5 months besides rare now at 2 months, etc? Is anyone you know studying it? Who's studying it and funded to? Really could be no one. A Dr/nurse setting would be ideal with known repeated exposure.
1 reply 1 retweet 17 likes -
Replying to @GregNN @CT_Bergstrom and
@Merz do you know anyone sequencing potential reinfection cases to empirically check? I'm concerned no one is doing so, as I've found no examples of falsified potential reinfections. The closest I've seen is attempts to culture virus being negative eg in the S Korea study in May2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes -
Replying to @GregNN @CT_Bergstrom and
I don't. It's an important thing to do. Also, on reflection, I'd really prefer to see that samples from the second infection actually contain infectious virus by plaque assay.
4 replies 3 retweets 24 likes -
Replying to @Merz @CT_Bergstrom and
Greg Nelson Retweeted Ali
This is the only report of people checking evidence / studying potential reinfection cases. https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1285701012536385539 … It's shocking to not know people checking this given how important it is, and how empirically blind we are by not checking it. Hope you / others raise signal on it
Greg Nelson added,
Ali @aliostadCurrently a medical centre in Zanjan (431K) is tasked with a pilot to track reinfections, but they have not seen any yet. /5 https://www.isna.ir/news/99042921586/%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%AA%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%AD-%DB%B2%DB%B0-%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%AA-%D8%A2%DB%8C-%D8%B3%DB%8C-%DB%8C%D9%88-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%B2%D9%86%D8%AC%D8%A7%D9%86 …Show this thread1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes -
Greg Nelson Retweeted Ali
This person seems credible and has posted many articles from officials in Iran saying they are seeing reinfections, multiple reports, leading researchers there saying reinfections have been observed. Googled the source, seems not fake news, see threadhttps://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1287659186554314753?s=20 …
Greg Nelson added,
Ali @aliostad#BREAKING Dr. Minoo Mohraz, Iran's most prominent specialist in Infectious Diseases, just confirmed reinfection especially among the medical staff during the second wave. https://www.isna.ir/news/99050603830/%DA%A9%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%86%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%86-%D8%B9%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%AA-%DA%86%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B2-%D8%A8%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D9%82%D8%B1%D9%86%D8%B7%DB%8C%D9%86%D9%87-%D8%A8%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%86%D8%AF …Show this thread11 replies 17 retweets 43 likes -
Replying to @GregNN @CT_Bergstrom and
I'd want evidence that these are independent infections and not a single infection exhibiting cyclic dynamics.
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
i agree, but, aren't either bad?
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Replying to @DanielleFong @Merz and
Yes, but they mean different things.
0 replies 0 retweets 1 likeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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