i think self driving teslas in small tunnels is a pretty workable idea imo i don’t get the 45 degree caltrain wtf
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Replying to @DanielleFong
Workable ? Yes. With useful passenger throughput? No it really isn’t.
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Replying to @maxrogo
not sure what gives you the confidence to say that honestly, if you can control all the vehicles in the tunnels electronically you can have higher speeds than a road, maybe 3x
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Replying to @DanielleFong
It’s not about the speed of the vehicles. It’s about throughput of the system. The vehicles are too small. The required dwell times too high. The system has like 5 Herbies even before a breakdown of any kind.
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Replying to @maxrogo
again, i see why you might think that but not why you have confidence. in fact onramping and off ramping seem like they could be more effectively managed than in a conventional subway in many instances
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Replying to @DanielleFong
My confidence is based on reading train people’s analysis on this. And also the fact that it will neither be speedy nor high capacity vehicles. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/12/business/vegas-musk-boring-company/index.html …
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Replying to @maxrogo
have read similar... was unconvinced! they seem to be searching for reasons it won’t work — 1 ply into innovation and stop. you usually see with with incumbents
@FutureJurvetson posted a video of tunnel in LA. it was smooth as silk!2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @DanielleFong @FutureJurvetson
Almost all of Musk’s tunnel ideas ignore how hard it is to get people In and out of vehicles and necessary spacing for safety. The LV tunnel at least isn’t crazy complicated like the LA master plan. So it can *work* I agree. But outpoint a higher capacity system, I doubt
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Replying to @maxrogo @FutureJurvetson
these just don’t seem like the scale of problems that people make it out to. you can do input output in so many ways *because* of individual vehicles. as for spacing you don’t need very wide spacing at low speeds, or at higher speeds under computer control in a tunnel
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Replying to @DanielleFong @FutureJurvetson
All of this is able to calculated with known formulas (I learned them in b school so I’m sure people with better recall can provide them). It’s inherently a low capacity system design. You can’t exceed x vehicles per hour. And you can’t exceed z capacity per vehicle
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imho should be way more skeptical of “known formulas” you can’t get further than your assumptions! say avg 5 people per vehicle, 1 minute to load (generous assumptions) 10 hours avg operating time is 3000 people. seem very possible to get loading to 20s-30s & like 3-5 parallel
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Replying to @DanielleFong @FutureJurvetson
But there’s one bore. And these known formulas define the throughput of every system on earth. Musk can’t repeal them. The train isn’t useful for 10 hours in the convention center. And isn’t at capacity for more than a few, when it will be overcapacity
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Replying to @maxrogo @FutureJurvetson
the bore isn’t remotely the restriction in this scenario. the cars travel at like 160 mph, you do not need a 2 2/3rd mile berth between cars in this concept
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