These are 1) Noisy but 2) Current Also it is clear that R in hot-states are plunging toward 1. Estimate peak in 5-10 days.
you see to be right, not for this long. but it’s worth understanding what the implied time constant is... Rt seems to be a concept that’s dimensionless in time?
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cases_t2/ cases_t1 Is a return over t2 - t1 days. R, by definition, is the number of new cases generated over the infectious period of a disease. Mean recovery time of 14 days: R = (cases_t2/cases_t1) where t2 = t1 +14
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The exponent is only necessary if you're measuring over shorter periods and want to correct to the full 14 days.
End of conversation
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