R estimates on http://rt.live and http://covidactnow.org/ are just straight garbage. They're using way too much data (over smoothing) and therefore the R estimates aren't actionable (too stale). Here are mine.pic.twitter.com/V3LaMifdOr
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R estimates on http://rt.live and http://covidactnow.org/ are just straight garbage. They're using way too much data (over smoothing) and therefore the R estimates aren't actionable (too stale). Here are mine.pic.twitter.com/V3LaMifdOr
These are 1) Noisy but 2) Current Also it is clear that R in hot-states are plunging toward 1. Estimate peak in 5-10 days.
what gives you confidence given the increasing positivity rates in a lot of these states
My R estimates are lower-bound in light of rising positivity.
OK, I made my own.pic.twitter.com/O5HWAaBnPG
Much worse. I make no attempt to control for positivity. That is... I assume that within the 8-day window under-counting doesn't appreciably change. Which should be true. R is by definition: (active cases now/ active case X days ago) ^(1/some time factor) Undercounting / out
I appreciate the Bayesian methods used in http://rt.live . I just think that they are oversmoothing or making some other error because *very* straightforward estimates of R are consistently higher.
thank you for that explanation. i obviously need to run my own numbers on this now. yet another thing to do though. i outrun myself
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