Let's change the question. Who among well-known figures is unusually good at predicting the future, and what traits do they have in common? And who do you personally know who seems to have a gift for it?
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How many companies have failed post YC? YC forces companies to give equity; they maintain stakes in hundreds or thousands of companies, which reinforces my point about VCs who spray and pray- baskets of investments means you’ll get hits; doesn’t mean you’re good at choosing
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Compare the “best” (read: luckiest and most well connected) VCs to mediocre hedge funders. The short termism of hedge fund draws forces PMs toward liquidity and accuracy. Track record of someone who matches the S&P (read:not good) will have way higher hit rate than top VCs
End of conversation
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