depends on robustness of immune response & long term damage & whether or not it's actually ok for you to be a carrier / isolated from people who want to isolate. also important: chance of mutation. reinfection & more cases increases mutation chance @robinhanson talked about this
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Replying to @DanielleFong @robinhanson
Yes, increasing likelihood of mutation is a valid concern at scale (I also posted about this). That said, young people in pro-virus counties will probably get it. Is it unreasonable to expect individuals with risk factors <.01 to self-imprison for a year over negligible impact?
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Replying to @RonenV @DanielleFong
It's a strong case for government intervention, with which I agree. Lacking that, I can't blame an individual for getting it out of the way I a contained, safe fashion, instead of randomly with open risk
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Replying to @RonenV
until very recently there wasn't much evidence for prolonged immunity. it's still debatable. the T cell study just came out as a preprint.
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Replying to @DanielleFong
I don't believe there's yet been a documented case of recurrence. At any rate, the line probably isn't lifetime, but vaccine availability, no?
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Replying to @RonenV
There are a lot of cases that are suspected recurrence or re-infection or just a really long disease but I haven’t seen a good study synthesizing all of these. The drop in antibodies is relevant to the immune system but T cells may have good memory
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Replying to @DanielleFong
My understanding is people haven't had documented viral shedding / PCR+ recurr after 2 weeks past viral shedding initially ending, even amongst those with immunity problems.
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Replying to @RonenV @DanielleFong
Also my understanding is that fortunately the virus seems to ironically have an abnormally slow mutation cycle for a coronavirus, partially due to how good it is at spreading / high incubation period & asymptomatic rate (aka low evolutionary predation to incentivize mutation)
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Replying to @RonenV
it has 1/1000th the rate of mutation but is much more contagious
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Replying to @DanielleFong
Ronen▼ 📍MIAMI Retweeted Ronen▼ 📍MIAMI
It has 1/1000th the rate of mutation possibly BECAUSE it is much more contagious https://twitter.com/ronenv/status/1244264502226542593?s=21 …https://twitter.com/RonenV/status/1244264502226542593 …
Ronen▼ 📍MIAMI added,
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main problem is that it's maintaining its most pernicious features.
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Replying to @RonenV @DanielleFong
moved it out of feed because twitter is the coliseum lol
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