For the graphs I've seen, I also wonder how much the increased "cases" is just increased tests. I haven't rigorously compared the positivity rates, but I'd bet that's at least some of it.
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In the past month cases increases 70% and testing increased about 20%.
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I have a hunch that social distancing doesn't just prevent infections but also decreases the avg initial viral load when infections do occur. One of many factors getting IFR in the right direction.
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Remdesivir is definitely in limited supply until September/October. Depends on how the outbreak is treated how the picture looks by then. Should have a million treatments/month by then.
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There’s a lag, but we also see seasonal attenuation of nearly all respiratory viruses. No one has conclusively demonstrated why, but this is the most convincing hypothesis I’ve encountered. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLReDW7jwD4 …
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