Oh man. Maharashtra state has 112.4 million people.
A 17.74% positivity rate!! That's *awful!* Without test and trace rampped up super quickly and widespread masks and very careful social distancing this will get completely out of hand.
https://twitter.com/SachinKalbag/status/1276889351813771266 …
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Replying to @DanielleFong
I think it's too far for contact tracing to be possible.
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Replying to @Pravduh15
Combined with everything else it will still help.
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Replying to @DanielleFong
It isn't feasible. 1 case could lead to over 1K tests. Anything over 3% is past the point of contact testing. Article: 1 bar hopper exposed 46K people. https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-contact-tracing-helped-control-nightclub-outbreak-2020-5 …
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Replying to @Pravduh15
what I’m suggesting is to use the state apparatus to find out where the outbreaks are lock down those areas and make sure that PPE is distributed in rings around it. use intelligent contact tracing/sampling to figure out where
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Replying to @DanielleFong
Locate event epic centers to focus testing in worst effected regions. This is one strategy. Do you think they should focus their resources on taking care of the patients and testing symptomatic? Austin, Texas had to prioritize symptomatic for testing.
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Replying to @Pravduh15
i’m not sure. The situation is so out of hand that I feel like prioritizing efforts to understand just how bad it is to mobilize a redoubled effort would be optimal. A high leverage activity could be identifying the types of super spreading events in india and stopping those
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Replying to @DanielleFong
One of my friends says that it doesn't matter what steps are taken, until therapies/ vaccines are discovered, when lockdowns are lifted, the virus always follows its natural path. He may be right. IDK.
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Replying to @Pravduh15
I definitely think that it’s quantitatively exponentially different depending on what we do. The more cases we have the more chances the virus has to mutate. It’s not all the same
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Replying to @DanielleFong
Sure, but depending on how bad the situation is and how strained resources are, might dictate the course of action.
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yeah we’re in a pretty fucked triage situation right now. But the biggest problem is that we’re blind and ignorant
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