BLOOMBERG: "Looking a Lot Like 2000."pic.twitter.com/0eiMMPEPfv
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do you ever do like, sornette-esque bubble analyses?
I don't know really but from this probably. I don't need to rely on explicit models; imho models are to guide your intuition. It doesn't take a genius to realise the financial system is a bubble. It is just a very persistent one! People like it.pic.twitter.com/pPzteXUPNu
my know-nothing read of his technique goes kinda like, if you take the log of the time series and it still bends up, it's a bubble, but yeah you're right you probably don't even need to bother
Looks like it. Further more, note that it's less and less time to a finite time singularity each time. That's a Geoffrey West insight (from Scale)
yeah sornette's got this trick where he can predict within a day or so of the bubble terminating (they don't always "pop" according to him but the superexponential behaviour stops) and he encrypts the predictions and puts em on arxiv or wherever and releases the key afterward
Woah. I didn't do that. That's really neat. I called the tops in 2007, and in Feb. I did not, however, have time to call the market reversal, due to some bullshit. I try to have a systems level view of the world focused on actual reality, not finance only, I was looking at COVID
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