Seriously you have to be seriously educated (PhD level) and brain damaged to be chief economist at Morgan Stanley and not have a coronavirus second wave effect on the economy in your forecast!
Idea is: No Shutdown, only a lockdown in certain areas, so the economy will grow. 
Deaths are a lagging factor, and the spread is exponential. So I don't buy the idea that that's how you should model this *at all* You have some distribution that you estimate for the lethality. 5% of those who tested positive of COVID19 have died.
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