Seriously you have to be seriously educated (PhD level) and brain damaged to be chief economist at Morgan Stanley and not have a coronavirus second wave effect on the economy in your forecast!
Idea is: No Shutdown, only a lockdown in certain areas, so the economy will grow. 
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Massive economic asset transfer ultimately creates large knowledge and technical gaps as well as huge power transfers and probably business failures... also, major opportunity depending on your vantage point.
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I'll be specific, this is not good for anyone but live players.
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By proxy, yeah.
End of conversation
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