Um. Daily new covid cases in Florida.pic.twitter.com/0QqHaF5MOb
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That's absurdly wrong lol, this is a long course of disease, and it's an exponential, so the early signal is very important! 3 weeks from infection to death is the media.
New cases trending up since may 27, deaths still on trend down. 500 positives in a college isn't the same as 10 positives in a nursing home.pic.twitter.com/qxg6ubkCWd
But with a 3 week (longer for younger people) your data is really missing the forest fire for a free.
OK, so in 4-5 (because that's what it'll take to be 3 weeks since may 27th) days if deaths keep going down are you going to change your mind ?
There's a ridiculous surplus of analysis from elsewhere in the world, so I wouldn't completely change my mind if data from Florida, which is not even reporting hospitalisations and fired its data scientist from not manipulating numbers, didn't trend up in 4-5. But in 2 wks maybe.
There is a huge amount of structure in the data. So to change my mind of this I'd run a deep analysis including by county and what the age is of those infected. http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org pic.twitter.com/0mx926UxXC
No, that's not what you do. If DoD cases growth and DoD death growth diverge (ie: former up while latter down), before moving on to a "deep analysis" you have to explain why you were wrong in that instance.
Why would I prioritise analysis from data from a state that's being clearly fucked with without doing the structural analysis.
Everywhere else death and cases track (with time delay)
CFR is hugely affected by AGE and TIME OF INFECTION.
Must account for this.
cc @DrEricDing
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