Please critique the following statement: Nationwide lockdowns weren't seriously considered in any previous pandemic. If you can't disconfirm please answer the question: What's changed since 1968?
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Replying to @StewartalsopIII
This virus is quite a lot worse, I think? But also the incapability of the state everywhere except its police apparatus.
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Replying to @DanielleFong
From what I've seen in terms of excess death rates and when adjusted for population its comparable to 1968 although please challenge me on this if you see something different.
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Replying to @StewartalsopIII
There's widely varying belief in lethality at the moment, and it depends on whether the hospital system will be overrun. I am so afraid that we are going to get all kind of superspreading now.
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Replying to @DanielleFong
I think excess deaths are the best way to measure how many people are actually dying from it because we can compare to historical averages. Here is that data: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries?fbclid=IwAR2JE1Lkm2jcP2obUNl4VmALAfg1KD6OARXs015_sCUjD37VQus7OHI98jg …
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Replying to @StewartalsopIII
I don't think we've had was much spread as people think, not yet. It has to cross social barriers, which are many in this country.
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Replying to @DanielleFong
I think we have had much more spread than people think but this would be difficult to prove without widespread testing.
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Replying to @StewartalsopIII @DanielleFong
Here is why I think that: Huge asymptomatic rate and R(5.7). I can't find more recent data on R(0). Let me know if you have any: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article …
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Replying to @StewartalsopIII
The reason this doesn't work any more is because we're not a lumped population. There are many social hurdles the virus must cross. I was the first one in my circle to insist that R(5.7) was real, but it's especially not like that after social distancing / awareness kicks in imho
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Replying to @DanielleFong
Curious to know what you mean by "not a lumped population"?
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like people are in different states and communities and social strata and so on, have substantially different levels of education and misinformation and risk of exposure. the USA is a large country!
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