It's possible it's lower than 25%, but that would imply an IFR of greater than 1%. Those have an inverse relationship. I think it's unlikely that it will be much lower than 20%.
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The main question with this is what they delays are: in reporting, in incubation, in progress in the disease, in how long it takes for it to be fatal. It could be that the people in Manhattan are quite strong physically -- I think you have to be to live there.
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